The climate change impact on the Almería region is expected to intensify the frequency and severity of drought periods, with a clear increase in both the duration and intensity of droughts since 2022. The region has witnessed cyclical droughts since 1961, but current trends indicate prolonged and more extreme drought periods.
Average maximum annual temperatures are forecasted to rise by between 1.88ºC and 2.82ºC, leading to hotter summers, with maximum temperatures surpassing 36ºC. The increase in minimum temperatures, including in winter, will also be significant, with extreme minima rising by up to 4.69ºC.
Precipitation is predicted to decrease, with a reduction of up to 0.48 mm/day, particularly affecting the frequency of rainy days, and the potential evapotranspiration will increase. Consequently, water resources will be under additional strain, further exacerbating the region’s existing water scarcity issues. This will also contribute to increased evapotranspiration and reduced runoff. The decrease in cloud cover will further intensify the region’s heat stress.